Just in time for my weekly post, Gartner came out with a brand new report. To make a long story short, they expect mobile VoIP to reach 50% of all end-to-end mobile traffic by 2019. No mistake there – want mobile VoIP? You will have to wait another decade.
Who would have guessed… Gartner agrees with me. No VoIP for you (or me), at least not now, and not as soon as we would have liked.
If you want to get a bit crankier and bitch about it, you’re welcome to join Tom Keating:
Why do we have to put up with this crippleware? I get that AT&T is a business and needs to make money. If they’re worried that flat-rate data plans that run VoIP over it will drastically hurt their voice revenue, then change your business model!
And if that wasn’t enough, Gary Kim reports that Microsoft might forbid VoIP from their shiny new MarketPlace:
VoIP applications using a mobile provider’s broadband network apparently will be forbidden from Microsoft’s Windows MarketPlace for Mobile store [...]
The mobile VoIP restriction is consistent with similar rules at other app stores, for one obvious reason: mobile operators are not at all keen on cannibalizing the voice revenues that remain the revenue mainstay, even if new revenue sources are growing fast.
Waiting to catch some Mobile VoIP?
Well, if the only way for VoIP to succeed on mobile is to die, let’s just kill it.
But then again, the only ones with a license to kill it are the mobile operators. And they have their own timetable. For them, 2019 sounds just about right – a decade or so to “milk” our wallets and then either wither-and-die or do a bold move and go VoIP.
There’s one bright spot out there, though, and that’s 3, with their new obligation-free Skype offering. Jim Courtney from Voice on the Web puts it nicely:
Effective May 1, 3 subscribers will be able to purchase a special 3G SIM card, which will allow the user to download Skype software and start making calls to Skype users worldwide with no minimum monthly payment obligations…
3 is certainly providing wireless carrier leadership in the adoption of Skype as a mobile accessible service, demonstrating that there is a business model for the wireless carrier that not only drives subscriber recruitment but also can generate increased ARPU (and revenues) while lowering the overhead costs associated with supporting international calling.
Only time will tell if 3 is successful. And if it is, expect others to follow suit. Then, maybe, we won’t have to wait so long.
Tags: App Store, Broadband, communication, Gartner, Jim Courtney, Microsoft, Mobile, mobile operators, mobile VoIP, report, research, Services, Skype, Tom Keating, VoIP
Comments and trackbacks
1. Michael | May 11th, 2009 at 4:47 am
The report also says that mobile VoIP is interconnected with the rollout of 4G networks which in some countries may take up until 2017. Speaking for Japan, things get started a bit earlier and we should have a fully functional LTE infrastructure by 2012 / 13.
And while providers have an iron grip on the market at least softbank is not really milking anybody for voice plans. Sure, they charge a lot for calling into other networks, but for inter-network calls it’s just 10$ a month. The other 40$ are for data for which there is no cap. They do forbid tethering, but the rule is not enforced and I know quite a few people who get away with it. And even if they do enforce it there is always E-Mobile who welcome everything and nothing in their network without any restrictions whatsoever.
To some degree the same goes for Europe where they are not too far behind when it comes to infrastructure plans and probably even ahead when it comes to device policy. So the viewpoint described in your post is only valid for the US and for those who don’t want to or can’t invest a bit more time into setting up their mobile devices… Luckily that is the majority of users which allows the likes of us to get away with using mobile VoIP and enjoying all the other forbidden fruits that true mobility has to offer
2. Tsahi Levent-Levi | May 11th, 2009 at 4:55 am
Michael,
That is exactly my point – because it takes time to set up mobile VoIP people aren’t using it. This means mobile VoIP isn’t taking off any time soon.
Thanks for the inputs on Japan – they were quite insightful.
Regards,
Tsahi
3. Michael | May 11th, 2009 at 5:07 am
It’s amazing how much the average mobile user is in the hands of the providers, but I am not sure if Gartner has calculated mobile handset vendors into the equation; so far Apple is playing along and Nokia leaves at least the option to cut out some of the more advanced options of the Symbian OS, but I am not sure if they have reason to continue on this path in the future if the network infrastructure is in place.
This goes probably more for Europe where carriers are pretty much forced to offer the latest Nokia phones. In Japan the operators are in command when it comes to mobile devices and it’s no wonder that Nokia has pulled out of the market last year. It’s hard to compete with Sharp and Co. who have more or less sold their soul to the MNOs. In spite of the advanced network infrastructure and devices Japan will probably come in second after Europe when it comes to implementing mobile VoIP.
4. Tsahi Levent-Levi | May 11th, 2009 at 5:13 am
Michael,
When would you place your bets on mobile VoIP in Europe then?
Do you see an uptake of more than 20% for mobile VoIP usage in the next 5 years or so or will it happen later?
5. Michael | May 11th, 2009 at 5:45 am
Yes, I think if an uptake earlier than that predicted in the Gartner report is going to happen it will be in Europe. One reason you already mentioned: Smaller providers like 3 might help to break the ice for VoIP over 3 / 4G, but they alone can’t produce anything close to 20% uptake.
If anything like that happens it will probably be initiated by T-Mobile. A bold statement, I know, but they will be one of the early players when it comes to LTE and have already stated that they are going to skip the last speed increments for HSDPA in favor of getting the new standard out. At the same time their position towards 3rd party VoIP has been one of the most hostile of all carriers. Still, they never actively blocked VoIP in all of their markets and it was mostly a TOS ban.
That being said, when it comes to an internal solution that is a whole different story: The structure of LTE greatly favors IP vs. PSTN calls efficiency-wise and apart from some suggestions (Volga Forum) there is not even an official way to initiate PSTN calls over LTE. So if T-Mobile starts implementing LTE in 2011 as they have announced it would be foolish to enforce PSTN calls for all handsets as it would cut into their own profits in the long run.
Rather than that I see them leverage VoIP (they may not use the term as VoIP is dead
) to advertise the newer LTE handsets which can be sold for a premium as they enable cheaper all IP telephony in a network that has been optimized for IP services right from that start and has done away with all the legacy equipment of a past era… It also opens up a whole new world of opportunities when it comes to negotiating with handset vendors and the services that they want to offer on their handsets, but that’s probably a topic for another post.
All of this goes mainly for T-Mobile Germany where I could very well imagine a 20% upswing in the next 5 years. I am not as sure about T-Mobile UK, but chances are that something is going to move in that market as well. As for the rest of Europe, I am not informed enough to make an even remotely qualified prediction and so I won’t make any. Thank you for the discussion so far!
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