2010 Predictions: My Educated Guess

By Sagee Ben-Zedeff

Categories: Video Conferencing

January 26th, 2010

“There are many methods for predicting the future. For example, you can read horoscopes, tea leaves, tarot cards or crystal balls. Collectively these methods are known as “nutty”. Or you can put well-researched facts into sophisticated computer models, more commonly referred to as “a complete waste of time” - Scott Adams

As 2010 begins, it’s predictions time again, when everyone who’s writing anywhere must give their predictions for the up-coming year. I will not disclose here my methods for predicting the future,  but will share with you what I commonly refer to as “my educated guess”:

1. Video Calling and Video Conferencing Will Merge Into Visual Communications

Video calling is getting more wide-spread and more buzz, especially now that Skype is making a lot of noise in CES. On the other hand, in the enterprise front, the video conferencing market is still quite secluded from the IM/Video chat hype. In 2010 I suspect that these two islands will finally meet and merge, and the result would be a better, more complete experience – the one we like to call visual communications.

2. Video Calling Will Be In Everybody’s Homes (And Not Just Their Desktops)

To continue from the last prediction, video calling on the desktop is becoming something everyone is using, thanks to Skype, Google and their likes. But 2010 seems to be the turning-point where video will leave the desktop and move into the living room, the bedroom, the kitchen, the restroom, you name it. Calling someone using video would be just like calling him on the phone, only better.

3. IT Will Have Their Hands Full With Bandwidth Issues

As video calling will become popular and as visual communications becomes a reality, IT managers will have to deal with bandwidth issues in their enterprise networks. Bandwidth management – in the endpoint level, in the bridge level and in the management level – will become a must, if visual communications is to be successfully deployed in the entire organization.

4. Everyone Would Have Their iPhone App

Video conferencing?  Video calling?  Video anything? – there’s an app for that. 2010 will be the year where every player in the market will come out with their own iPhone app. What will these apps do?  We’ll have to wait and see. But in 2010 the business reality will be: you have an iPhone app, therefore you are.

5. Scalable Video Coding (SVC) Will Not Become The De-Facto Standard

SVC is great. SVC tools do wonders to video conferencing. But 2010 will not be the year that the market will switch to SVC-based solutions. SVC-based endpoints and SVC silos will be deployed, but the majority of enterprises will use either non-SVC solutions or a hybrid of SVC and non-SVC.

Bonus: A Bunch Of Stuff That Won’t Happen This Year

B2B Video Conferencing will not be solved. 1080p will not become the de-facto resolution. Cloud-based video conferencing will not become popular. Social media will not penetrate to the enterprise. Mobile video conferencing will not happen. The iPhone will not have a front-faced camera (yet…). Software-only MCUs will not become popular. People will still not reach an understanding about what telepresence is.